Session 13: Modeling Urban and Regional Systems for Sustainability and Equity
11:15 AM – 12:30 PM | Room 62 (Lower level)
Integrating Models for Regional Sustainability Planning
Daniel Engelberg, Harut Shahumyan, Sevgi Erdogen, Fred Ducca, Di Yang, Rolf Moeckel, Gerrit Knapp, and Uri Avin
University of Maryland
For regional sustainability planning, decision makers need tools to examine connections between environmental and social systems in order to understand the efficacy of potential policies across various systems. Though the integration of the Maryland Statewide Transportation Model (MSTM) with existing models for land use, building based carbon emissions, vehicle based carbon emissions, and water pollution, the National Center for Smart Growth examines scenarios for a more sustainable future. The research further examines policies that advance sustainability in each of the modeled scenarios. The modeling approach supports systems thinking for sustainability planning in the Baltimore-Washington region.
Representing Uncertainty in Collaborative Urban Planning: Social Equity Indicators in Scenario Planning Tools
Robert Goodspeed, Sabiha Zainulbhai, and Bonnie Wang
University of Michigan
Our paper presents prototypes, a research design, and preliminary results from an investigation of the representation of uncertainty in planning support systems. The context is the design of a tool for social equity in urban scenario analysis, which applies existing empirical research to allow planners to assess social vulnerability as well as estimate future social conditions associated with a particular urban scenario, including physical and mental health and economic mobility. Drawing on previous studies, the outcome variables are tool user’s uncertainty perception and information-seeking interest. In addition to representational choices, individual control variables include experience and value orientation.
Using System-Based Approaches to Scenario Design for Policy Making at the Regional Level
Raul Trujillo-Cabezas
Universidad Externado de Colombia
Context and outline are discussed for the main steps and processes of the roles of modeling and simulation (M&S) on scenarios designed to contribute to build a sustainable future for communities in their territories; these scenarios may help to integrate decision-making processes about complex realities from regional behavior.
