6:00-7:30 PM | Room TBA

Animal Protein Production System: An Integrated Modeling Framework

John Classen
North Carolina State University

Wendy Powers
Michigan State University

Deanne Meyer
University of California, Davis

Robert DeOtte
West Texas A&M University

Brent Auvermann
Texas AgriLife Extension Service

A group of land-grant university faculty has developed many technologies for environmental protection but we have not been able to address potential tradeoffs among different pollutants or environmental media. Consequently we have expanded the definition of our system from a producer’s operation to the larger animal protein production system (APPS) and included disciplines not previously considered. In this poster we present our evolving causal loop diagram and identify the structural archetypes that appear. We describe the relationships within one of the major substructures as an example of how the CLD can be used as an outreach tool with stakeholders.

Co-designing a Role Playing Game to Elicit Cattle Herding Strategies

A. Perrotton, C. Le Page, M. de Garine Wichatitsky, and B. Triomphe
CIRAD

P. Chuma

The concept of socioecological systems is now widely used by academics. If it provides a relevant theoretical framework, modeling such systems is a complicated task as they are composed of multiple subsystems (ecological, social, economic, political, climatic) that are in perpetual interaction, resulting in complex and multi-scale sets of dynamics. Coexistence between actors is a relevant parameter that can be studied as it influence SESs’ sustainability. Livestock herding patterns are major drivers of non-coexistence within SESs, including a protected area and rural households. In this poster we present a role playing game that was co-designed with farmers in order to elicit their livestock herding strategies.

Constructing Food Security Scenarios in Dryland West Africa Through Transformative Scenario Planning and Participatory Modeling

Udita Sanga and Laura Schmitt Olabisi
Michigan State University

The West African region struggles with high levels of food insecurity and chronic malnutrition. In this study, we aim to address the various mechanisms and processes within the complex food security systems in Ghana, Mali, and Burkina Faso. The study will develop mental models using stakeholder narratives as well as system dynamics models through transformative scenario planning. Data collection will be done in May 2015 in collaboration with ICRISAT, Mali. Model inputs and outputs will enable a comprehensive, multi-scale assessment of the food security problem in ways that have not been previously done.

Modeling Ebola: Understanding, Prediction, and Control

Kamalaldin Kamalaldin, Peter Erdi, and Amber Salome
Kalamazoo College

Our project aims to enhance the currently supported models of Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission by incorporating more recent data collected by the World Health Organization and qualitatively modifying the model’s structure so as to produce a better fit to the data. We are interested in finding control strategies leading first to an inflection point and second to saturation of the infected population. We hope with this project to use our results to guide public health officials toward the most effective ways to halt the spread of EVD.

The Social-Ecological Complex Adaptive System (SE_CAS) Framework for Conceptualizing and Modeling Social-Ecological Systems

Garry Sotnik
Portland State University

The poster describes work in progress on a multi-actor and multi-network framework for modeling the social component of any social-ecological system. The framework borrows classifier system rules from computer science, mental model architecture and decision-making and learning heuristics from psychology, and ideas about institutions and resource management from economics. It applies these to a network of actors whose behavior is governed by networks of rules. The framework includes the possibility of context-specific demographics, network structures, and rules. For actors who engage in decision making, it includes individual and social learning, and, under certain conditions, collective action.

Collaborative Modeling for Community Systems Change

Jennifer A. Lawlor and Katherine Cloutier
Michigan State University

Increasingly, community change agents are focusing their work around changing systems that give rise to complex problems related to public health, education, and employment (Kania & Kramer, 2011). Agent-based modeling and social network analysis can inform change efforts in regard to complex social problems and has the potential to be very powerful when developed collaboratively with community partners. The present poster discusses the process of developing and sharing models with communities, how modeling can be beneficial for community-based work, and how the process can be improved upon.

Communication Network Analysis for Assessment of Integration and Collaboration in Large-Scale Research Teams

Jocelyne Helbling and John Anderson
University of Idaho

The MILES 2014 SNA Project utilizes social network analysis (SNA) to map the network graph of interactions between research participants. The analysis uses multiple measures to characterize flows and bottlenecks of communication, identify influential informal leaders, and assess the efficiency of formal leaders and the prescribed organizational structure. Furthermore, the MILES 2014 SNA Project assesses the potential of SNA to function as a method of identifying and characterizing levels of integration and collaboration within large scale research teams.